MatsukiyoCocokara & Co. (3088) — Investment Report

Executive Summary

A 1.1-trillion-yen health & beauty platform with pricing power

Japan's largest drugstore operator by brand value — cosmetics, private-label and dispensing pharmacies form a durable mix-driven earnings engine, now amplified by alliance-based M&A.

🎯 The core engine

Matsumotokiyoshi Group segment contributes 60% of group OP (¥60.8bn FY26). H&B product mix at 72.4% and PB ratio at 14.8% keep gross margin at 35.2% — the highest quality revenue among Japanese drugstore majors.

🔄 The growth lever

Dispensing-centric M&A (Shinseido Pharmacy, Oct 2025) created a new "& Company" segment with 112 stores (93 dispensing). Alliance model targets ¥1.3tn revenue by FY2031 (organic) + α from M&A.

💴 The return story

Progressive dividend policy (no cuts): DPS up every year — ¥50 FY26, ¥56 FY27E, payout ratio on a path from 36% to 50% by FY2031 (DOE 6%). Net cash balance sheet (interest-bearing debt only 0.4% of assets).

FY2026 Record profits Q1 FY2027 +14.9% NP (above plan) Welcia×Tsuruha merger → now #2 by sales FY27E impacted by pro-forma tax ¥1.8bn

Investment Thesis

Three pillars, one story: mix, M&A, and returns

Conviction ordered by strength. Each pillar carries its own risk points — see Risks section for the full matrix.

STRONG — Core conviction

Pillar 1 — Cosmetics × PB × Data: an un-duplicable profit engine

#1 in cosmetics among Japanese drugstores (Interbrand Best Japan Brands 2026 rank 63, 11 consecutive years as the No.1 drugstore brand, brand value $752M, +20% YoY).
H&B mix expanded to 72.4% (FY26); cosmetics sales ¥259.4bn (+10.2%). PB ratio 14.8% (+1.2pt) with ~1,900 SKUs across matsukiyo / matsukiyoLAB / independent brands (ARGELAN, RECiPEO, INJESK, MQURE derma×…).
Data moat: 30.3M member base, 150M+ customer touchpoints; marketing revenue (data monetization) grew to 118% of prior year — a new, high-margin revenue line.
Segment OP ¥60.8bn (FY26), OP margin 8.6%, growing +4.9% even as the group digested M&A costs.

Counter-risk: Cosmetics sales are partly inbound-dependent (Chinese tourist swings; Taiwan/Thailand now offsetting). If H&B mix peaks, margin expansion stalls — but gross margin has still compounded 32.9%→35.2% over 5 years.

MEDIUM — Structural growth

Pillar 2 — Dispensing-centric "Alliance" M&A: a repeatable growth template

Shinseido Pharmacy (Kyushu, 112 stores, 83% dispensing) consolidated Oct 2025 under newly formed intermediate holding company & Company — the alliance model's first concrete step.
FY2027 adds 2 more subsidiaries (UNIVERSAL DRUG, AppBrew) — pipeline evidence that M&A continues.
Target: ¥1.3tn organic revenue + α by FY2031, +130~150 net new stores/yr in priority areas, ASEAN ¥100bn by FY2031 (Malaysia store #1 opened).
Dispensing demand is structurally defensive (aging, health-lifetime extension, self-medication shift).

Counter-risk: M&A integration (procurement, systems, HR) is still "in progress" — the ¥200M OP contribution from Shinseido in its first 6 months is minimal. Synergy delivery is the swing factor.

MEDIUM — Shareholder return

Pillar 3 — Progressive dividend with an explicit 50% payout roadmap

DPS trajectory: ¥23.3 (FY22, split-adjusted) → ¥28.3 → ¥36.7 → ¥44 → ¥50 (FY26) → ¥56 (FY27E) — an unbroken 5-year rising streak.
Policy codified: progressive dividend (no cuts), payout 30%→50% and DOE 3%→6% by FY2031.
Balance sheet ultra-defensive: equity ratio 71.9%, interest-bearing debt ¥2.19bn (0.4% of assets), FCF ¥38.98bn FY26.
ROE 10.5% with explicit 12%+ target; capital cost management (PBR 1.85× vs 2× target) is an active board agenda.

Counter-risk: Dividend growth is policy-driven, not earnings-driven in the near term — FY27E payout ratio 37.5% still leaves headroom, but a sudden large M&A could redirect capital.

Financial Trajectory

5 years of compounding: revenue ×1.5, OP ×2.1

Revenue CAGR +11.2%, OP CAGR +19.9%, NP CAGR +12.9% (FY22–FY26). FY2027E guides +3.0% OP — a regulatory dip, not a demand problem.

Consolidated P&L (¥M)

EPS/DPS in ¥ · FY22–FY24 EPS/DPS on split-adjusted basis (1:3 split Oct-2023)

Item	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026	FY2027E
Net Sales	729,969	951,247	1,022,531	1,061,626	1,117,440	1,155,000
YoY	—	+30.3%	+7.5%	+3.8%	+5.3%	+3.4%
Gross Profit	239,979	329,320	354,097	372,235	393,784	—
Gross Margin	32.9%	34.6%	34.6%	35.1%	35.2%	—
SG&A	198,887	267,043	278,392	290,153	308,849	—
Operating Profit	41,091	62,276	75,705	82,082	84,935	87,500
OP Margin	5.6%	6.5%	7.4%	7.7%	7.6%	7.6%
Ordinary Profit	44,565	66,721	80,499	86,271	89,855	91,500
Net Profit (parent)	34,377	40,545	52,347	54,675	55,776	59,000
YoY	—	+17.9%	+29.1%	+4.4%	+2.0%	+5.8%
EPS (¥)	93.81	96.02	125.31	133.85	139.94	149.18
DPS (¥)	23.33	28.33	36.67	44.00	50.00	56.00
Payout ratio	24.9%	29.5%	29.3%	32.9%	35.7%	37.5%

Revenue, OP and NP trajectory (¥bn)

Gross margin expansion — mix-driven, not price-driven

H1 FY2027 interim check (Q1: Apr–Jun 2026) — ahead of plan

Item (¥M)	Q1 FY2026	Q1 FY2027	YoY
Net Sales	273,643	289,348	+5.7%
EBITDA	25,406	27,662	+8.9%
Operating Profit	19,808	21,487	+8.5%
Net Profit (parent)	12,939	14,865	+14.9%
EPS (¥)	32.30	37.59	+16.4%

Read-through: Q1 FY27 EPS growth (+16.4%) runs well above the full-year guidance (+11.5% EPS growth to ¥149.18) — supporting upside to FY27 full-year estimates. The regulatory drag (pro-forma standard taxation ≈ ¥1.8bn, dispensing-fee reclassification) is a FY27-specific headwind, not a structural one.

Business Deep Dive

Seven dimensions across the three core segments

Selected by OP contribution: Matsumotokiyoshi Group (60%), Cocokara Fine Group (23%), & Company/Shinseido (forward growth). Management Support is the holding-company function — context only.

Segment 1 · Matsumotokiyoshi Group Business — the profit engine

①Business essence

Drugstore & dispensing pharmacy chain under the Matsumotokiyoshi banner: 1,970 domestic stores (481 dispensing) + 100 overseas stores (Thailand 37, Taiwan 23, Vietnam 20, Hong Kong 18, Guam 1, Malaysia 1). PB portfolio ~1,900 SKUs (matsukiyo / matsukiyoLAB / ARGELAN / RECiPEO / Retinotime / INJESK / MQURE derma× / nake / KNOWLEDGE). Seamless store × pharmacy × EC (Q / Be / Me) platform with 30.3M members.

②Moat & market position

#1 cosmetics seller among Japanese drugstores; Interbrand Best Japan Brands 2026 rank 63 (11 years as No.1 drugstore brand, $752M, +20% YoY). Barrier = urban store density, brand equity, beauty-advisor counseling data (150M+ touchpoints), dispensing co-location. PB development holds Japan's first retail ISO9001 certification.

③Profit-driver decomposition

Mix (dominant): H&B 72.4% of sales; cosmetics +10.2% → gross margin 35.2%.
Volume: sales +6.6%; +66 net stores, dispensing co-location lift.
Price: PB ratio 14.8% (+1.2pt) supports gross profit per unit.
Cost: marketing/data revenue 118% of prior year offsets wage & rent inflation.

④Demand structure

Category mix FY26 (¥M): pharmaceuticals 213,682 / cosmetics 259,448 / daily goods 125,755 / food 69,134 / other 41,081. B2C-driven; defensive core (aging + self-medication shift), moderate cyclicality (cosmetics), plus inbound/tax-free upside in urban stores.

⑤Capacity & mid-term plan

Mid-term plan (FY26–31): revenue ¥1.3tn organic + α M&A; EBITDA margin 13%+; ROE 12%+; payout 50%; DOE 6%. KPIs: +130~150 stores/yr in priority areas, H&B 75%, PB 15%+, members 45M. ASEAN ¥100bn by FY31 (Malaysia entered).

⑥Competition & risk

Welcia×Tsuruha merger (Dec 2025) creates a 5,600+ store, ~¥2tn group under Aeon — MatsukiyoCocokara drops to #2 by sales/stores. Response: differentiation (cosmetics/PB/urban) + alliance scale. Regulatory: dispensing-fee & drug-price revisions, pro-forma tax +¥1.8bn in FY27. Cost: wages, logistics, urban rents.

⑦Governance & capital returns

Top holders: Japan Master Trust 14.98%, Custody Bank 5.16%, Chiba Bank 3.35%, Nankai Kosan 3.18%, founder-family Matsumoto Namio 2.20%, Eisai 2.09%, Matsumoto Kiyoo 1.84%, Matsumoto Takashi 1.84% (top-10 = 38.3%). Progressive dividend policy codified; BIP/ESOP trusts for executives; independent director ratio target 50%.

Segment 2 · Cocokara Fine Group Business — the quality turn

①Business essence

Drugstore & dispensing chain under Cocokara Fine banner: 1,536 stores (538 dispensing, 35% co-location). Adjacent care businesses (FINECARE, Aianju: facilities, home-visit care, rental/sales of care goods), counseling-based "omotenashi" sales model, group procurement & supply.

②Moat & market position

Top-tier dispensing pharmacy scale; counseling-driven high-value sales; regional health-care network mission; Rakuten Point tie-up for membership reach; PB quality certified ISO9001 (first in Japanese retail).

③Profit-driver decomposition

Cost/structure: scrap & build (stores 1,561→1,536) reallocates human capital; OP margin held at 6.0% despite flat sales.
Volume: sales ¥389.9bn, roughly flat (-0.3%).
Mix: cosmetics ~30% of sales; shared group PB improves margin.
Price: counseling/high-value sales offset drug-price revisions.

④Demand structure

Dispensing medical demand (538 pharmacies) + general consumer (OTC/cosmetics/daily goods) + home-care/visiting-nurse demand. Defensive aging-related demand; community-pharmacy positioning under health-lifetime policies.

⑤Capacity & mid-term plan

Continuing scrap & build — redeploy resources to high-ROI areas/formats; leverage group PB, logistics and systems to run the same differentiation/investment playbooks as Matsumotokiyoshi.

⑥Competition & risk

Post-merger large-format competition in dispensing areas; dispensing-fee revision pressure (pharmacy consolidation); population-decline regions risk. Same-sector competitive set: Welcia, Tsuruha, Sugi, Cosmos, Genky, Create SD.

⑦Governance & capital signals

Wholly-owned subsidiary under MatsukiyoCocokara; no standalone capital policy — consolidated into group progressive dividend and capital-efficiency agenda.

Segment 3 · & Company Business (Shinseido Pharmacy) — the alliance template

①Business essence

Shinseido Pharmacy (founded 1978, Fukuoka): 112 stores (93 dispensing, 83% ratio) across northern Kyushu (Fukuoka/Kumamoto core). Also runs visiting-nurse station and Curves franchise. Consolidated Oct-2025 under new intermediate holding company & Company; 6-month contribution only in FY26.

②Moat & market position

Leading regional dispensing network in northern Kyushu; dominance-area share expansion is the strategy ("regional No.1 healthcare station"). Community trust in an aging catchment.

③Profit-driver decomposition

FY26 partial: revenue ¥12.9bn, OP ¥0.2bn (OP margin 1.5%) — 6 months only, integration costs.
Cost: procurement/system synergies "under concrete study" — not yet realized.
Volume: 83% dispensing → prescription growth is the engine.

④Demand structure

Dispensing-centric (83%) → strongly defensive (aging, regional medical access). Tax-free tourist demand at Fukuoka Tenjin / Kumamoto city stores (Taiwan/HK coupons active).

⑤Capacity & mid-term plan

"Alliance concept": an easy-to-join structure for regional operators; & Company is the vehicle. FY27 already consolidates 2 more (UNIVERSAL DRUG, AppBrew) — pipeline visible.

⑥Competition & risk

Regional pharmacy/drugstore competition in Kyushu; M&A integration risk (HR, systems, procurement synergy delay).

⑦Governance & capital signals

Intermediate-holding structure ( & Company) cleanly houses M&A vehicles; integrated into group dividend policy.

Product portfolio & competitive landscape (preserved artifacts)

PB portfolio architecture

Type	Brands	Positioning
Main PB	matsukiyo (10th anniversary)	Daily health & beauty; design-led, brand "wow"
Health-care PB	matsukiyoLAB	Expert-recommended (pharmacist/nutritionist/beauty specialist)
Independent brands	ARGELAN (organic), Retinotime (anti-aging), RECiPEO (sensitive skin), INJESK, MQURE derma×, nake, KNOWLEDGE	High-value, category-specialized, co-created with manufacturers (Isehan, etc.)

Competitive landscape — Japanese drugstore majors (FY2022 SG&A rate benchmark)

Model	Companies	SG&A rate	Strategy
High-value / cosmetics	MatsukiyoCocokara, Welcia, Sugi	~27% (MCC)	Cosmetics + PB + counseling staff → high GM, high SG&A
EDLP / discount	Cosmos, Genky, Sundrug	16–19%	Everyday-low-price, low ops cost, PB
Pharmacy-centric	Tsuruha, Create SD, Sugi	23–25%	Dispensing co-location, local healthcare

Source: NUPALS study (FY2022 rankings) & company filings. MatsukiyoCocokara's ~27% SG&A is the industry's highest — the deliberate price of its cosmetics/counseling model; it is also what funds the 35.2% gross margin.

Store network & subsidiary structure (FY2026)

Segment	Stores	Dispensing	Net change	Key subsidiaries
Matsumotokiyoshi Group	1,970	481	+32 (open 66 / close 34)	Matsumotokiyoshi Co., Ltd. + overseas entities (Thailand/Taiwan/Vietnam/HK/Guam/Malaysia)
Cocokara Fine Group	1,536	538	-25 (open 26 / close 51)	Cocokara Fine Healthcare, Iwasaki Kohkendo, Koishikawa Pharmacy, FINECARE, Aianju
& Company	112	93	+112 (M&A)	& Company (holdco), Shinseido Pharmacy
Total	3,618	1,112	+119	Group: 23 consolidated subsidiaries

Segment Structure

One engine, two satellites — OP concentration is the story

Matsumotokiyoshi Group = 60% of segment OP and the only reliable growth contributor; Cocokara Fine holds margin; & Company is the future M&A vehicle.

Segment revenue by year (¥bn, external)

Segment operating profit (¥M) & margins

Segment	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026	FY26 Margin
Matsumotokiyoshi Group	35,854	41,797	51,741	57,952	60,818	8.6%
Cocokara Fine Group	5,312	19,347	21,795	23,805	23,456	6.0%
& Company	—	—	—	—	200	1.5%
Management Support	—	5,099	30,259	20,185	17,137	n.m.
Segment total	41,035	66,245	103,795	101,942	101,613	—
Eliminations/adjustments	56	-3,968	-28,090	-19,860	-16,677	—
Consolidated OP	41,091	62,276	75,705	82,082	84,935	7.6%

Management Support volatility explained: the FY2024 spike to ¥30.3bn was a segment-reporting artifact — since FY2023, dividends received from group companies are booked as inter-segment sales in this segment per the group dividend policy change. It normalizes thereafter. Evaluate real retail profitability at the segment-total level.

Anomaly Analysis

Seven deviations from trend — and what they actually mean

Each anomaly was traced via ima RAG (search_knowledge) against the annual reports; severity reflects the impact on the investment case.

MEDIUM

FY2023 sales +30.3% jump

First full-year consolidation of Cocokara Fine (merged Oct-2021) + group-dividend booking change. One-off. Normalizes to +5–7% thereafter.

HIGH

FY2024 Mgmt Support OP spike ¥30.3bn

Inter-segment dividend receipts under the new group dividend policy — a reporting artifact, not real retail profit. Read segment-total, not this line.

MEDIUM

FY2026 NP +2.0% vs OP +3.5%

Higher effective tax (~36%) + impairment ¥1.68bn compressed net profit. FY27E re-accelerates to +5.8% NP.

MEDIUM

Cocokara Fine revenue -0.3%

Deliberate scrap & build (stores 1,561→1,536) — quality-over-quantity. OP margin improved to 6.0%.

HIGH

FY27E OP +3.0% only

Regulatory dip: pro-forma standard taxation ≈ +¥1.8bn SG&A + dispensing-fee accounting reclassification. Core earning power intact (Q1 +8.5% OP).

POSITIVE

Progressive dividend streak

DPS up 5 straight years; payout 24.9%→35.7%; explicit 50% (FY31) and DOE 6% targets. Rare policy clarity in Japanese retail.

MEDIUM

& Company segment creation

Shinseido consolidation (Oct-2025) adds 112 stores, 83% dispensing. Early-stage (6-month ¥200M OP) but proves the alliance M&A engine.

Profit Quality

High-margin, cash-generative, and improving — with one accounting caveat

The P&L is clean at consolidated level; the only distortion sits in the Management Support segment line, which we neutralize in our read.

Profit-quality indicators

Indicator	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026
Gross margin	32.9%	34.6%	34.6%	35.1%	35.2%
OP / Ordinary profit ratio	92%	93%	94%	95%	95%
Operating CF (¥M)	39,812	64,061	63,506	81,472	73,201
FCF (¥M)	24,327	44,392	40,746	60,680	38,978
ROE	9.7%	8.6%	10.5%	10.6%	10.5%
Payout ratio	24.9%	29.5%	29.3%	32.9%	35.7%
Equity ratio	70.5%	70.1%	71.0%	73.1%	71.9%
Interest-bearing debt (¥bn)	—	—	—	—	2.19 (0.4% of assets)

Assessment: Operating-profit quality is high — 95% of ordinary profit is operating, gross margin compounds via mix, FCF remains strongly positive even after elevated FY26 investment (¥34.2bn investing CF on M&A/capex), and the balance sheet is net-cash. One caveat: the Management Support segment's dividend-receipt accounting inflates group internal turnover; investors should model retail profitability at segment-total level (~¥101.6bn, of which ¥16.7bn is eliminated). No impairments of goodwill concern: ¥98.3bn goodwill (Cocokara ¥93.0bn, Shinseido ¥5.1bn) amortizes steadily with no step-down risk flagged.

Valuation

Cheap versus its own quality: 17× for a 35% GM compounder

Primary method: PE on FY2027E EPS ¥149.18. Target ¥3,000 = 20.1× FY27E — a reasonable premium to the peer mean for a net-cash, mix-compounding leader.

Scenario matrix (FY2027E EPS basis)

Scenario	Multiple	Target	Upside
Conservative (×15)	15.0×	¥2,238	-11%
Base (×18)	18.0×	¥2,685	+7%
Target (×20.1)	20.1×	¥3,000	+19%
Bull (×23)	23.0×	¥3,431	+36%

Current ¥2,516 (2026-08-14). EPS FY2027E ¥149.18 (company guidance). Target multiple justified by: net cash, 5-yr dividend growth streak, H&B mix leadership, and Q1 beat.

Peer comparison (PER, TTM)

Company	Code	PER (TTM)
MatsukiyoCocokara	3088	17.3×
Welcia Holdings	3141	~17×
Tsuruha Holdings	3391	~13×
Sugi Holdings	7649	~15×
Cosmos Pharmaceutical	3349	~20×
Create SD Holdings	3148	~18×

Source: web cross-verified multiples (2026-08). MCC trades near peer median despite highest gross margin, net cash and dividend-growth policy — the discount reflects post-Welcia×Tsuruha scale anxiety and FY27 regulatory dip.

Balance-sheet strength (FY2026)

Metric	Value	Read
Total assets	¥755.8bn	Growing with M&A
Net assets	¥544.5bn	Equity ratio 71.9%
BPS	¥1,365.78	PBR 1.84×
Interest-bearing debt	¥2.19bn	0.4% of assets — net cash
Goodwill	¥98.3bn	Cocokara ¥93.0bn amortizing; no step-down flag
Cash & equivalents	¥119.7bn	Funds future M&A + dividends

Catalysts

Next 12 months — six events to watch

Q1 FY2027 results (released 2026-08-10)

Already delivered: revenue +5.7%, OP +8.5%, NP +14.9%, EPS +16.4% — above plan, evidence the FY27 regulatory dip is contained.

H1 FY2027 results (Nov 2026)

First half with UNIVERSAL DRUG & AppBrew consolidated; watch H1 OP progress vs the -2.3% H1 guide (regulatory hit front-loaded) and any full-year guidance revision.

FY2027 interim dividend (announced with H1)

Expect ¥28 interim (FY26: ¥24) under the progressive policy — a visible +16% DPS step.

Alliance M&A pipeline (ongoing)

Shinseido synergy milestones (procurement/system unification) + potential new & Company consolidations; each deal extends the ¥1.3tn + α roadmap.

ASEAN / overseas expansion

Malaysia store #1 (FY26) and ASEAN ¥100bn-by-FY31 target — early traction would re-rate the growth narrative.

Capital policy event (Jun 2027 AGM)

Payout ratio 50% / DOE 6% by FY31 — annual DPS increases and any buyback announcement are near-term catalysts.

Risks

Six risks, ranked by severity

Competition — Welcia×Tsuruha scale

Post-Dec-2025 merger, the Aeon-linked group reaches ~5,600 stores / ~¥2tn sales, pushing MCC to #2. Long-run share pressure in cosmetics & dispensing catchments if MCC fails to differentiate.

HIGH

Regulatory — dispensing fees & tax

Dispensing-fee revision (accounting reclassification reduces revenue) + pro-forma standard taxation (+¥1.8bn SG&A in FY27) + drug-price revisions. Recurring, but quantified and contained.

HIGH

M&A integration

Shinseido (and future deals) synergy realization — procurement, systems, HR. Early OP contribution is minimal; delay = growth-thesis disappointment.

MEDIUM

Inbound dependency

Tax-free cosmetics sales skew toward Chinese tourists; Taiwan/Thailand currently offset, but geopolitics/visa changes can swing urban-store like-for-likes.

MEDIUM

Cost inflation

Wages, logistics, urban rents; commodity-driven price pressure. MCC's KPI cost management has absorbed it so far (FY26 OP +3.5% despite inflation).

MEDIUM

Valuation / multiple

Target 20.1× FY27E assumes continued dividend growth + Q1 beat + M&A delivery. A growth miss compresses to the conservative ×15 case (-11%).

LOW

Conclusion

BUY — ¥3,000 target, +19% upside

Verdict · Time Horizon · Conviction

12-month horizon · BUY · Conviction: HIGH (strong balance sheet + progressive dividends cap the downside; mix engine + M&A pipeline drive the upside)

✓ Mix-driven margin: H&B 72.4% & PB 14.8% → gross margin 35.2%, the industry's best quality revenue.
✓ Data moat: 30.3M members, 150M+ touchpoints; marketing revenue +18% — a new high-margin line.
✓ Record profits: FY26 revenue ¥1.12tn (+5.3%), OP ¥84.9bn (+3.5%), NP ¥55.8bn (+2.0%).
✓ Q1 FY27 beat: NP +14.9%, EPS +16.4% — above the full-year plan.
✓ Progressive dividend: 5 straight increases; ¥56 FY27E; 50% payout / DOE 6% by FY31.
✓ Net cash: interest-bearing debt 0.4% of assets; FCF ¥39bn; funds M&A + returns.
✓ Alliance engine: Shinseido (112 stores, 83% dispensing) + UNIVERSAL DRUG + AppBrew — repeatable template.
✓ FY27 dip is regulatory, not demand: pro-forma tax ¥1.8bn & dispensing reclassification; core OP momentum intact.
⚠ Dropped to #2: Welcia×Tsuruha merger creates a ~¥2tn group — long-run share contest.
⚠ M&A integration: Shinseido synergy unproven (¥200M first contribution); delay = growth disappointment.
⚠ Inbound swing: tax-free cosmetics skew to Chinese tourists; Taiwan/Thailand now offsetting.
⚠ Mgmt-Support accounting: segment OP inflated by inter-segment dividends — model at segment-total level.

EARNINGS

Strong

QUALITY

High

VALUATION

Fair

RETURNS

Rising

RISK

Moderate

Recommended action: accumulate on weakness toward ¥2,400–2,500 (conservative-scenario zone). Set initial target ¥3,000 (20.1× FY27E EPS); review after H1 FY2027 results (Nov 2026) for guidance-revision upside. Reassess thesis if H1 OP declines beyond the guided -2.3% (regulatory hit worse than modeled) or if M&A synergies slip beyond FY27.

Report generated 2026-08-15 · Sources: MatsukiyoCocokara FY2022–FY2026 有価証券報告書 (EDINET via ima knowledge base), FY2026/FY2027 guidance (決算短信 2026-05-13), Q1 FY2027 results (2026-08-10), company IR & mid-term plan, web market data (2026-08-14 close ¥2,516). This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.